US Data
Wednesday 4:30 Durable Goods Orders (Sep) -2.4% m/m
Wednesday 6:00 Consumer Confidence (Oct) 53.1
Wednesday 6:00 New Home Sales (Sep) 429k
Thursday 4:30 GDP Annualized (Q3) -0.7% q/q
Thursday 4:30 Initial Claims (24-Oct) 531k
Friday 4:30 Core PCE Price Index (Q3) 1.4%
Friday 4:30 Personal Income (Sep) 0.2% m/m
Friday 5:45 Chicago PMI (Oct) 46.1
Friday 5:55 Univ. of Mich. Sent. (Oct) 69.4
US Corporate earning releases still dominated the markets focus last week, with the likes of Amazon,Microsoft, Wells Fargo and Morgan stanley all beating analysts expectations. In response
confidence of a sustained recovery grew, prompting to a strong run up in all equity indices. On the data front the housing data was again mixed with the pace of existing homes sales beating
analysts expectations although the number of building permits and housings starts both fell short of the mark. Inflation at the grass roots of the economy showed further signs of easing with the
PPI measure declining by 0.1% m/m. The Beige Book was of particular interest last week with the report highlighting that economic conditions had "stabilized or improved" modestly in most
parts of the country. However, the ever beleaguered labor market continued to be characterized as "weak or mixed", adding to this the Federal Reserve report noted that consumer spending
remained weak in most districts. This week look for the two readings of consumer confidence as well as the GDP reading for Q3 to be the major focus for the week.
Canada Data
Tuesday 6:00 BoC Governor Carney to speak on Monetary Policy Report
Thursday 4:30 Industrial Product Price Index (Sep) 0.5% m/m
Thursday 4:30 Raw Materials Price Index (Sep) 3.7% m/m
Friday 4:30 GDP (Aug) 0.0% m/m
The main event last week was very clearly the latest interest rate decision. Leading up to the announcement some markets participants had begun to speculate that the Boc would amend their
statement with regards to the timing of their first rate hike. The participants were firmly disappointed, no only did the BoC stick firm to their original timing for a rate hike, but they also noted
that the heightened volatility and persistent strength in the Canadian Dollar would "more than fully offset" the favourable developments since July. These comments were echoed in the BoC
Monetary Policy report although the report also suggested that the central bank now assumed a USD/CAD rate of 1.0417 down from its previous target of 1.1494. With this being said
immediately following the release of the monetary policy report BoC Governor Carney hit the news wires stating that he wouldn't use the word "comfortable" when describing the persistent
strength of the Canadian dollar. Furthermore he stated that FX intervention was is always an option. This week look for the Augusts' GDP reading to be the key event risk.
EU Data
Thursday 2:00 Business Climate (Oct) -2.07
Thursday 2:00 Consumer Sentiment (Oct) -19.0
Thursday 2:00 Economic Sentiment (Oct) 82.8
Friday 2:00 Flash HICP (Oct) -0.3% y/y
Friday 2:00 Unemployment (Sep) 9.6%
There were very few comments from central bankers last week as EUR/USD traded above 1.5000 with a high level of frequency. Data releases were some what muted with all of the releases
beating market expectations. Confidence amongst purchasing managers in both the manufacturing and service sectors saw continuing signs of improvement leading the market to feel
encouraged that the Eurozone has seen the worst of the recession. This week we have several sentiment indexes where the market will be looking for a continuation of the strong series of
previous releases.
UK Data
Tuesday 2:00 CBI Distributive Trades (Aug) 3.0
Thursday 1:30 BoE Mortgage Approvals (Sep) 52.3k
Friday 0:00 Gfk Consumer Confidence (Oct) -16.0
Friday 0:00 Nationwide House Prices (Oct) 0.0% y/y
It was a game of two halves last week for the UK as the Bank of England minutes highlighted a unanimous decision to leave rates on hold as well as to not extend the current quantitative easing
initiative. Immediately following this release the GBP rallied 3 cents vs. the US Dollar. However, by weeks end Q3's GDP release saw all of this GBP strength unwound as the economy
contracted by 0.4%, marking the first time in the UK's history that they have had six straight quarters of declines. There were few other positives during the week as the retail sales measure for
September also disappointed. In the week ahead we look to the Consumer confidence reading and house price survey to provide the major event risk.